THE PERCENTAGES OF FINDING A PLAYER ...
By Roy White
We wanted to take a look back at past years to see what type of player the Mavs can expect to find if they decide to use their No. 13 pick in tonight's NBA draft, and what we found was this: the chances of the Mavericks drafting a high impact player at their draft position are slim to none. However, there is a good chance that the Mavs can draft what we deem a serviceable NBA player – one more reason for Dallas to view the pick as an asset.
Here's the criteria (the player must satisfy one of the three): they've played, on average, over 60 games per year since they were drafted; They've averaged 25 or more MPG in their career; or they average double digit points per game in their career. We've dubbed these players "serviceable NBA players."
Why did we choose those parameters? Simple: the longevity filters out players who have had significant injury issues, or players who never quite developed into NBA talent. Having said that, we still wanted to include players that, when healthy, provided their teams with significant minutes. Finally, if you're scoring 10+ points a game in the NBA, then you likely have a spot in the league. Here's what we've found (each draft broken down individually):
- 5 of 7 picks turned into serviceable NBA players. None have made an All-Star appearance.
Notable players drafted after 16 : Wilson Chandler (23), Aaron Brooks (26), Tiago Splitter (28), Carl Landry (31), Marc Gasol (48), Ramon Sessions (56)
10 - SAC - Spencer Hawes - 420 GP (72 gms/yr), 24 MPG.....9 pts, 6 reb, 2 asts / game
12 - PHI - Thaddeus Young - 437 GP (75 gms/yr), 29 MPG.....13 pts, 5 reb, 1 ast / game
14 - LAC - Al Thornton - 296 GP (51 gms/yr), 28 MPG.....12 pts, 4 reb, 1 ast / game
15 - DET - Rodney Stuckey - 410 GP (71 gms/yr), 29 MPG.....13 pts, 3 reb, 4 asts / game
16 - WAS - Nick Young - 416 GP (72 gms/yr), 23 MPG.....11 pts, 2 reb, 1 ast / game
- 6 of 7 picks turn into useable NBA players. 1 All Star Appearance (Brook Lopez).
Notable players after 16 : Roy Hibbert (17), JaVale McGee (18), Serge Ibaka (24), Darrell Arthur (27), Nikola Pekovic (31), Mario Chalmers (34), De'Andre Jordan (35), Goran Dragic (45)
10 - NJN - Brook Lopez - 325 GP (68 gms/yr), 33 MPG.....18 pts, 7 reb, 1.5 asts / game
11 - IND - Jerryd Bayless - 309 GP (64 gms/yr), 19 MPG.....8 pts, 2 reb, 3 asts / game
12 - SAC - Jason Thompson - 378 GP (79 gms/yr), 27 MPG.....10 pts, 7 reb, 1 ast / game
13 - POR - Brandon Rush - 291 GP (61 gms/yr), 27 MPG.....9 pts, 3.5 reb, 1 ast / game
15 - PHO - Robin Lopez - 324 GP (67 gms/yr), 17 MPG.....7 pts, 4 reb / game
16 - PHI - Marreese Speights - 344 GP (72 gms/yr), 16 MPG.....8 pts, 4.5 reb / game
- 4 of 7 turned into serviceable NBA players. No All Star Appearances. Notable players after 16 : Jrue Holliday (17), Ty Lawson (18), Jeff Teague (19), Taj Gibson (26), Marcus Thornton (43)
10 - MIL - Brandon Jennings - 291 GP (76 gms/yr), 35 MPG....17 pts, 3.5 reb, 6 asts / game
12 - CHA - Gerald Henderson - 234 GP (61 gms/yr), 26 MPG....11 pts, 3 reb, 2 asts / game
13 - IND - Tyler Hansborough - 246 GP (65 gms/yr), 20 MPG.....9 pts, 5 reb, 0.5 asts / game
15 - DET - Austin Daye - 237 GP (62 gms/yr), 15 MPG.....6 pts, 3 reb, 1 ast / game
- Just 4 of 7 players turn out to be serviceable NBA players. 1 All Star Appearance (George).
Notable players after 16 : Eric Bledsoe (18), Jordan Crawford (27), Greivis Vasquez (28), Landry Fields (39), Lance Stephenson (40)
10 - IND - Paul George - 206 GP (73 gms/yr), 30 MPG.....13 pts, 6 reb, 3 asts / game
13 - TOR - Ed Davis - 212 GP (75 gms/yr), 23 MPG.....7 pts, 6 reb, 1 ast / game
14 - HOU - Patrick Peterson - 187 GP (67 gms/yr), 22 MPG.....8 pts, 4.5 reb, 1 ast / game
15 - MIL - Larry Sanders - 183 GP (66 gms/yr), 19 MPG.....6 pts, 5.5 reb, 1 ast / game
- 5 of 7 turned into serviceable NBA players. No All Star Appearances. Notable Players drafted after 16 : Iman Shumpert (17), Kenneth Faried (22), Chandler Parsons (38),Isaiah Thomas (60)
10 - MIL - Jimmer Fredette - 130 GP (72 gms/yr), 16 MPG.....7 pts, 1 reb, 1.5 asts / game
11 - GSW - Klay Thompson - 148 GP (82 gms/yr), 31 MPG.....15 pts, 3 reb, 2 asts / game
12 - UTA - Alec Burks - 123 GP (68 gms/yr), 17 MPG.....7 pts, 2 reb, 1 ast / game
13 - PHO - Markieff Morris - 145 GP (80 gms/yr), 21 MPG.....8 pts, 5 reb, 1 ast / game
15 - IND - Kawhi Leonard - 122 GP (68 gms/yr), 27 MPG.....10 pts, 5.5 reb, 1 ast / game
16 - PHI - Nikola Vucevic - 128 GP (71 gms/yr), 26 MPG.....10 pts, 9 reb, 1.5 ast / game
- 4 of 7 turned into serviceable NBA players. No All Star Appearances.
Notable Players drafted after 16 : Tyler Zeller (77), Jae Crowder (34)
10 - NO - Austin Rivers - 61 GP, 23 MPG.....6 pts, 2 reb, 2 ast / game
11 - POR - Meyers Leonard - 69 GP, 18 MPG.....5.5 pts, 4 reb, 0.5 ast / game
14 - MIL - John Henson - 63 GP, 13 MPG.....6 pts, 5 reb, 0.5 ast / game
15 - PHI - Maurice Harkless - 76 GP, 26 MPG.....8 pts, 4.5 reb, 1 ast / game
- Of the 42 players selected in this draft range since 2007, 28 (67%) have become "serviceable NBA players". Here's how each category broke down - either 60+ gms/yr (27 players - 64%), 25+ MPG (13 players - 31%), or 10+ PPG (12 players, or 29%).
- As a result, you can infer that the Mavericks will likely get a player who will be able to contribute on a nightly basis, but chances are low that said player contributes significant minutes, and even lower that said player becomes a viable scoring option.
Of the 42 players selected in this draft range...
- just 2 have made All Star appearances...that's just 5%. So good luck thinking the Mavs are getting an All Star.
- Just 3 players (7%) - (Jennings, Brook Lopez, and Klay Thompson) - have averaged 15+ pts/gm in their careers
- Just 6 players (14%) - (Lopez, Vucevic, Ed Davis, Paul George, Jason Thompson and Spencer Hawes) - have averaged 6 rebounds or more in their career.
- Just 4 players (10%) - (Jennings, George, Lopez, and Klay Thompson) - have averaged more than 30 minutes per game.
Ultimately, history dictates that it'll be very difficult for Dallas to come up with with a player that's going to help this thing in the short term. We expect the Mavericks to trade out of the pick, but if they do decide to use it tonight, history says it’s difficult to imagine that player being a major contributor. Still, as Fish often points out: Somebody in the middle-first to second round can play. The winning teams find those guys. Dallas needs to find those guys.
A DECADE OF WHAT YOU GET AT 13 ...
By Mike Fisher
If the Dallas Mavericks want no part of the 13th overall pick in tonight's NBA Draft, recent history likely has only a little to do with it.
But recent history does say No. 13 rarely rewards a team with greatness. To wit: If you reach back 30 years, you find a Karl Malone and a Kobe Bryant at 13.
So, what DO you get?
2012 Kendall Marshall ... The North Carolina guard is playing for Phoenix, averaging 13 minutes a game with 2.8 points and 2.7 assists per game.
2011 Markieff Morris ... Another member of the Suns, the Kansas product is averaging 7.9 points and 4.8 rebounds as a part-time starter on the Western Conference's worst team.
2010 Ed Davis ... Traded by Toronto to Memphis in the Rudy Gay deal, the 6-10 North Carolina product has a chance to be a success story. His career averages of 7.4 points and 6.4 rebounds offer bench support to a good Grizzlies program.
2009 Tyler Hansbrough ... Another North Carolina guy! The rough-housing Tyler Hansbrough gets 17 minutes a game with the Pacers and have career averages of nine points and 4.7 rebounds per game.
2008 Brandon Rush ... Rush was selected 13th overall by Portland in the 2008 NBA Draft. He was then traded to the Pacers. In 2011, Rush was traded to the Warriors for forward Louis Amundson. And last summer, he re-signed with the Warriors on a two-year $8 million contract only to see his season cut short with a serious knee injury sustained in November.
2007 Julian Wright ... In his rookie season in the NBA, Wright averaged 3.9 points a game and 2.1 rebounds a game for the Hornets. Wright was traded to the Raptors (for Marco Belinelli) in 2011. He conflicted with coaches there, and is now bouncing around the outskirts of the game,
the Kansas product having signed with the Austin Toros of the NBA D-League and with Maccabi Rishon LeZion of Israel in recent months.
2006 Thabo Sefolosha ... He was taken with the 13th pick of the 2006 NBA Draft by the Philadelphia 76ers and then traded to the Chicago Bulls for the 16th pick (Rodney Carney) and cash.
At the 2009 February trade deadline, Sefolosha was swapped by the Bulls to the Thunder for a first-round draft pick. Sefolosha has blossed with OKC as an All-NBA Defensive honoree and a key piece on a title contender.
2005 Sean May ... One of four Tar Heels to be lottery picks in the 2005 NBA Draft, May averaged seven points a game over four NBA seasons that were impacted by injuries. The burly forward spent
three years in Charlotte and one year in Sacramento and now plays professionally in France.
2004 Sebastian Telfair ... The high-schooler-turned-pro has made eight NBA stops since being selected by Portland. The 6-0 guard, now with Toronto, will likely be more remembered for his storied schoolboy career in Brooklyn that for anything he does as a pro.
2003 Marcus Banks ... The UNLV guard was drafted by Memphis for Boston, the first of his six NBA stops. He averaged six points per game in the league and has recently played for the D-League's Idaho Stampede and for Panathinaikos Athens.
2002 Marcus Haislip ... Taken out of Tennessee by Milwaukee, Haislip is the definition of "well-traveled.'' To wit: He's played with the Bucks, the Pacers, Ülkerspor, Efes Pilsen, Unicaja Málaga, the Spurs, Panathinaikos, Caja Laboral, the Guangdong Southern Tigers, the Foshan Dralions, and presently, the Dongguan Leopards.
2001 Richard Jefferson ... The former Arizona star was a key piece of the Nets' fine teams of the early 2000's and remains in the NBA, now with the Warriors, with a career average of 15.8 points per game.
2000 Courtney Alexander ...
And "The Mavs at 13'' comes full circle.
He was the nation's leading scorer at Fresno State and then was selected by Orlando) for Dallas in 2000. He was averaging four points a game as a rookie in Dallas before he was traded with Christian Laettner, Loy Vaught, Etan Thomas and Hubert Davis to Washington for Juwan Howard, Obinna Ekezie and Calvin Booth.
The acquisition of Alexander worked for Dallas in the sense that it was a building block ... that led to a building block ... that led to legit contention.
But Alexander the player washed out after three NBA seasons. ... a player chosen by the Mavs at 13 that didn't quite work out ... and part of a long list of "The History Of 13'' that makes the future of 13 seem a bit dubious.
It is also worth noting that being too specific to The History of 13 is a mistake, in the sense that, as Roy White notes above, there are dozens of players taken after 13 -- players available at 13 but selected later -- who will also be sitting there.
Somebody in this Draft taken 13 or after will be a star. Maybe a handful of somebodies. Mid-rounders make teams. Second-rounders make teams. There is a way to do this ... and there is a history of guys who make it and who don't.
As always, we would urge the Mavs to use No. 13 tonight as an asset -- in one form or another -- rather than as a clog to free-agency progress.
WE'LL COVER IT LIVE! ...
Here on DB.com, of course. And on Twitter, where Mike Fisher, David Lord and
Michael Dugat keep you up-to-the-minute informed on all things Mavs!
But also, keep it tuned to 105.3 The Fan tonight, where we broadcast from Mavs HQ and break it down as it happens!
WHO VISITED DALLAS? ...
By Mike Fisher
Unlike some less secretive NBA teams, the Mavs don't announce pre-Draft visitors. So this is a talent hunt for them and an Easter Egg hunt for us. We dig for info on Dallas visits from name guys (like Michael Carter-Williams) to obscure prospects from New Zealand and Israel who aren't draft-eligible ... but who are still sneaking in and out of Mavs HQ. The best list you'll find of Mavs visitors.
HOW TO KNOW WHAT CASEY SMITH KNOWS ...
By Jeff Stotts
Separate from the front-office guys trying to work a trade ...
Basketball minds will analyze each player’s measureable and immeasurable attributes but it’s up to the highly-regarded medical staff of the Mavericks to weigh in on any potential medical red flags in each individual’s background. Free agency is coming but Thursday's draft comes first.
Injuries and medical histories matter. Here, you can know some of what Mavs trainer Casey Smith and staff know.
A BLUEPRINT FOR OUR BOYS IN BLUE ...
By David Lord
It’s Draft Day 2013. For the Mavs, 2012-13 was a year wasted. Dirk was injured much of the season, the team missed the playoffs for the first time since 2000, and today’s goal is to toss this roster in the trash as soon as possible and start over. How to speed the process to being elite again, beginning today? Join us for a tough-love Rebuild Guide for the boys managing our Boys In Blue.
Check back here and on DB.com Boards throughout the day and night for Mavs draft updates!